21 12 2006 With bags of enthusiasm but no priorities, it is far from clear what Bulgarians really expect from EU membership.
By Vladimir Shopov in Sofia (Balkan Insight, 21 Dec 2006)
While Bulgarians see joining the European Union as marking the end of a peripheral existence and isolation, they are joining the organisation with no clear priorities.
In the EU itself, it has become inappropriate to speak in any momentous terms about Sofia"s forthcoming accession. Indeed, there is unease in the EU about the prospect, on account of problems including organised crime, the judiciary and the general weakness of Bulgarian institutions.
This has meant the application of safeguard clauses and the continuation of strict monitoring. In spite of this, uncertainty remains in the minds of many decision-makers in key member states.
In Bulgaria on the other hand, while street parties and parades would be thought inappropriate, most people will greet accession with a sense of achievement and expectation.
A tardy and somewhat unconvincing starter in the post-communist reform process, Bulgaria was late in trying to board the EU accession train.
Having reached an economic and political dead end in 1996 under a government of ex-communists, it made a dramatic, last-gasp leap forward under a pro-western, Euro-Atlanticist government that turned matters around and set the transformation going. The EU accession process then helped Bulgaria surmount its own economic transition.
Because Bulgaria joins the organisation with no clear priorities, it is likely to be pushed into positions by institutional pressure coming from the EU rather than as a result of its own policy agenda.
Pre-accession experience suggests Bulgaria has an overall disposition towards supra-nationalism, and is content to surrender decisions and powers to Brussels.
This means common policies and positions are preferred to the policies of individual member states.
It may not last once Bulgaria is a member of the club, however. For instance, the urgency of the emerging common EU approach to energy does not appear to concern Sofia as it gets ready to sign a new long-term deal with Russia on energy supply, days before accession.
Furthermore, if Bulgaria"s small- and medium-sized enterprises begin to resist Brussels" regulations and blame accession-related economic restructuring on EU over-regulation, the public may equate regulation with excessive costs. Should this happen, governments will come under the sort of popular pressure that will soon dampen down the current enthusiasm for EU policy.
Some areas of policy clarity do appear to exist, though. Once in the EU, Sofia will be keen to see a bigger overall budget and will want access to
EU funds.
Fear of becoming an outpost on the EU"s external border coupled with persistent problems linked to the judiciary and organised crime will inevitably lead to greater attention to community policy in these areas.
Concern for the immediate geopolitical neighbourhood will also mean Bulgaria supporting the EU"s regional aspirations in Southeast Europe and beyond.
Sofia will continue to lend rhetorical support to Turkey"s EU application, for example, though in a context of growing uncertainty about its precise implications.
Some policy areas are unlikely to attract much support. Tax harmonization at community level seems to be one.
However, Bulgaria"s EU priorities overall remain a project for the future. Many will be shaped by the agenda in Brussels, while some will trickle down from the internal political debates and others determined by the pre-accession hurdles.
Whether Bulgarians remain EU optimists will be a key factor in determining Sofia"s policy in the union. Bulgaria enters the club with a remarkably high rate of public approval for membership. More than 65 per cent of the population supports it. Yet uncertainty and fear are creeping in now. Expectations of rising prices, higher unemployment, waves of bankruptcy and general uncertainty are gaining prominence. Traditionally, "big" events in Bulgarian history spelt trouble and many fear things will be the same this time round.
Much will depend on how the "facts" of membership are interpreted and whether, for example, the slaughter of pigs in unhygienic farms, or the EU-funded renovation of roads, gets most publicity.
Furthermore, most Bulgarians do not see Europe as a vague academic term but as a practical tool that will transform their everyday lives. The "hand of Europe" is expected to sort out a range of issues from judicial reform to traffic chaos. Overheated expectations may lead to disappointment and frustration.
The greatest danger of all may be the country"s own weak local institutions, if they prove incapable of bringing home and wisely managing the advantages of EU membership. The biggest nightmare is that it all results in Bulgaria becoming a budget contributor and not a net receiver.
Wobbly and incompetent public structures could then mean that all that allocated money is indeed "theoretical".
Beyond all these fears and hopes lies the challenge of taking advantage of the opportunities that membership entails. The degree to which Bulgaria maximises its opportunities, rather than accesses benefits or handouts, will determine whether Bulgaria makes a success of its membership. Bulgarians need to become fully aware of this simple fact and start evaluating to what extent they personally are able to take advantage of these opportunities.
Vladimir Shopov is a political analyst in Sofia. Balkan Insight is BIRN"s online publication
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